PDF(1609 KB)
PDF(1609 KB)
PDF(1609 KB)
基于PCA-SOA-ELM的空调系统负荷预测
Load Prediction of Air Conditioning System Based on PCA-SOA-ELM
Aiming at the problems of low prediction accuracy and long prediction time in the load forecasting method of air conditioning system participating in demand response, an air conditioning load forecasting model based on extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by principal component analysis (PCA) and seagull optimization algorithm (SOA) is proposed. The main characteristics affecting the load data of air conditioning system are extracted through PCA, the ELM load forecasting model of air conditioning system is established, and the model parameters are iteratively optimized by SOA. In order to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm, taking the air conditioning load data of an office building in Xi'an as an example, the experimental results show that six principal components containing 98.00% of the original information are obtained after PCA feature extraction. The prediction results of SOA-ELM model are basically consistent with the actual values, with root mean square error of 0.013 7, average absolute percentage error of 0.839 2%, determination coefficient of 0.991 0 and training time of 3.482 s. Compared with the other three comparison models, the performance of the model is better. It is proved that the model has strong generalization performance and high prediction accuracy, and can effectively predict the load change in the demand response period of the air conditioning system.
需求响应 / 负荷预测 / 主成分分析(PCA) / 海鸥优化算法(SOA) / 极限学习机(ELM)
demand response / load prediction / principal component analysis(PCA) / seagull optimization algorithm(SOA) / extreme learning machine(ELM)
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