碳交易试点政策对电力碳减排的影响效应

王喜平; 王仕恒

doi:10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2308302

PDF(968 KB)

分布式能源 ›› 2023, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (3) : 10-16. DOI: 10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2308302

学术研究

碳交易试点政策对电力碳减排的影响效应

王喜平 ,
王仕恒

作者信息 +

Effect of Pilot Carbon Trading Policy on Carbon Emission Reduction of Electricity

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

碳交易是促进碳减排的重要政策工具，研究碳交易政策对电力行业碳排放的影响机制对于促进电力行业绿色低碳发展及碳交易市场的完善具有重要意义。根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC)提出的基于排放因子的碳排放核算方法计算生产端电力行业碳排量；利用2005—2019年30个省市(西藏除外)面板数据，通过双重差分法(difference-in-differences, DID)评估碳交易试点政策对电力行业碳排放的政策效应，进一步分析碳减排的作用机制。结果显示：碳排放权交易政策对电力行业碳排放有明显的抑制效果，可有效减少试点地区8%的碳排放，并有明显的时间累计效应；政策效果主要是通过市场机制来实现的；发电结构、产业结构、总发电量是导致电力碳排放增加的主要因素，而城市化水平、经济发展水平促进了电力碳减排。根据以上结论，提出推进碳市场建设、在发展中寻求碳减排、调整产业结构和发电结构等政策建议。

Abstract

Carbon trading is an important policy tool to promote emission reduction, and it is important to study the mechanism that how the impact of carbon trading policy on carbon emissions in power industry promotes the green and low-carbon development of power industry and the improvement of the carbon trading market. This paper calculates the carbon emissions of power industry at the production side according to the carbon emission accounting method based on emission factors proposed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Using panel data of 30 provinces and cities (except Tibet) from 2005—2019, the effect of pilot carbon trading policy on carbon emissions in power industry is assessed by the difference-in-differences (DID) method, and the effect mechanism of carbon emission reduction is further analysed. The results show that the carbon trading policy has an inhibitory effect, which is of great significance, on carbon emissions in power industry, which can effectively reduce carbon emissions in the pilot areas by 8%, and has a significant cumulative effect over time, and the effect of the policy is mainly realized through the market mechanism. The power generation structure, industrial structure and total power generation are the main factors leading to the increase of carbon emissions from electricity, while the level of urbanization and economic development promote the carbon emission reduction of electricity. Based on the above findings, policy recommendations are proposed to promote the construction of carbon market, seek carbon emission reduction in development, and adjust industrial structure and power generation structure.

导出引用

王喜平, 王仕恒. 碳交易试点政策对电力碳减排的影响效应[J]. 分布式能源. 2023, 8(3): 10-16 https://doi.org/10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2308302

Xiping WANG, Shiheng WANG. Effect of Pilot Carbon Trading Policy on Carbon Emission Reduction of Electricity[J]. Distributed Energy Resources. 2023, 8(3): 10-16 https://doi.org/10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2308302

中图分类号： TK01; TM61

参考文献

列表( 原文顺序 | 文献年度倒序 | 文中引用次数倒序 ) 可视化分析

[1]	ENERGY B P. Statistical review of world energy globally consistent data on world energy markets and authoritative publications in the field of energy[J]. BP Energy Outlook, 2021, 70: 8-20. 本文引用 [1]

[2]	LUKASZ K. In-depth analysis in support of the commission communication com (2018) 773[R]. Belgium: European Economic and Social Committee, 2018. 本文引用 [1]

[3]	JÄGER-WALDAU A, KOUGIAS I, TAYLOR N, et al. How photovoltaics can contribute to GHG emission reductions of 55% in the EU by 2030[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020, 126: 109836. 本文引用 [1]

[4]	KOUGIAS I, TAYLOR N, KAKOULAKI G, et al. The role of photovoltaics for the European green deal and the recovery plan[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2021, 144: 111017. 本文引用 [1]

[5]	WACHSMUTH J, DUSCHA V, ECKSTEIN J, et al. The European commission's 2050 vision “A clean planet for all”-implications for sector strategies and climate governance[R]. Dessau-Roßlau, Germany: Umwelt-Bundesamt, 2021. 本文引用 [1]

[6]	王喜平，王雪萍. 基于时变Copula-CoVaR的欧盟与国内碳市场风险溢出效应研究[J]. 分布式能源，2022, 7(2): 8-17. WANG Xiping, WANG Xueping. Risk spillover effects of EU and domestic carbon market based on time-varying Copula-CoVaR[J]. Distributed Energy, 2022, 7(2): 8-17. 本文引用 [1]

[7]	JUNG H, SONG C K. Effects of emission trading scheme (ETS) on change rate of carbon emission[J]. Scientific Reports, 2023, 13(1): 912. 本文引用 [1]

[8]	PIETZCKER R C, OSORIO S, RODRIGUES R. Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European green deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector[J]. Applied Energy, 2021, 293: 116914. 本文引用 [1]

[9]	PERISSI I, JONES A. Investigating European union decarbo-nization strategies: Evaluating the pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050[J]. Sustainability, 2022, 14: 4728. 本文引用 [1]

[10]	黄向岚，张训常，刘晔. 我国碳交易政策实现环境红利了吗？[J]. 经济评论，2018(6): 86-99. HUANG Xianglan, ZHANG Xunchang, LIU Ye. Does China's carbon emissions trading policy fulfill the environmental dividend？[J]. Economic Review, 2018(6): 86-99. 本文引用 [1]

[11]	任胜钢，郑晶晶，刘东华，等. 排污权交易机制是否提高了企业全要素生产率：来自中国上市公司的证据[J]. 中国工业经济，2019(5): 5-23. REN Shenggang, ZHENG Jingjing, LIU Donghua, et al. Does emissions trading system improve firm's total factor productivity: Evidence from Chinese listed companies[J]. China's Industrial Economics, 2019(5): 5-23. 本文引用 [1]

[12]	黄志平. 碳排放权交易有利于碳减排吗？——基于双重差分法的研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境，2018, 32(9): 32-36. HUANG Zhiping. Does the carbon emission trading scheme promote carbon mitigation？[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2018, 32(9): 32-36. 本文引用 [1]

[13]	ERGAS H. Policy forum: Designing a carbon price policy: Using market-based mechanisms for emission abatement: Are the assumptions plausible？[J]. Australian Economic Review, 2012, 45(1): 86-95. 本文引用 [1]

[14]	李广明，张维洁. 中国碳交易下的工业碳排放与减排机制研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境，2017, 27(10): 141-148. LI Guangming, ZHANG Weijie. Research on industrial carbon emissions and emissions reduction mechanism in China's ETS[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017, 27(10): 141-148. 本文引用 [1]

[15]	ZHANG Yuejun, PENG Yulu, MA Chaoqun, et al. Can environmental innovation facilitate carbon emissions reduction? Evidence from China[J]. Energy Policy, 2017, 100: 18-28. 本文引用 [1]

[16]	ZHANG Shiyi, JIANG Kai, WANG Lan, et al. Do the performance and efficiency of China's carbon emission trading market change over time？[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020, 27: 33140-33160. 本文引用 [1]

[17]	ZHANG Haijun, DUAN Maosheng, DENG Zhe. Have China's pilot emissions trading schemes promoted carbon emission reductions？The evidence from industrial sub-sectors at the provincial level[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 234: 912-924. 本文引用 [1]

[18]	董直庆，王辉. 市场型环境规制政策有效性检验——来自碳排放权交易政策视角的经验证据[J]. 统计研究，2021, 38(10): 48-61. DONG Zhiqing, WANG Hui. Validation of market-based environmental policies: Empirical evidence from the perspective of carbon emission trading policies[J]. Statistical Research, 2021, 38(10): 48-61. 本文引用 [1]

[19]	孙振清，李欢欢，刘保留. 中国碳交易下的工业绿色发展效率及影响因素[J]. 华东经济管理，2020, 34(12): 57-64. SUN Zhenqing, LI Huanhuan, LIU Baoliu. Industrial green development efficiency and influencing factors under carbon trading in China[J]. East China Economic Management, 2020, 34(12): 57-64. 本文引用 [1]

[20]	魏荣. 碳排放权交易对工业碳排放绩效的影响研究[D]. 成都：成都理工大学，2019. WEI Rong. Study on the impact of carbon emission trading on industrial carbon emission performance[D]. Chengdu: Chengdu University of Technology, 2019. 本文引用 [1]

[21]	张维洁. 碳排放交易下中国工业的经济效应、减排效应及影响机制研究[D]. 广州：暨南大学，2018. ZHANG Weijie. Research on industrial economic effects, carbon abatement effects and influencing mechanism in China's ETS[D]. Guangzhou: Jinan University, 2018. 本文引用 [1]

[22]

王凌云，徐健哲，李世春，等. 考虑电－气－热需求响应和阶梯式碳交易的综合能源系统低碳经济调度[J]. 智慧电力，2022, 50(9): 45-52.

WANG

Lingyun

, XU

Jianzhe

, LI

Shichun

, et al. Low carbon economic dispatch of integrated energy system considering electricity-gas-heat demand response and tiered carbon trading[J]. Smart Power, 2022, 50(9): 45-52.

本文引用 [1]

[23]	陈皓勇. “双碳”目标下的电能价值分析与市场机制设计[J]. 发电技术，2021, 42(2): 141-150. CHEN Haoyong. Electricity value analysis and market mechanism design under carbon-neutral goal[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2021, 42(2): 141-150. 本文引用 [1]

[24]	DONALD S G, LANG K. Inference with difference-in-differences and other panel data[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2007, 89(2): 221-233. 本文引用 [1]

[25]	GOODMAN-BACON A. Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2021, 225(2): 254-277. 本文引用 [1]

[26]	CALLAWAY B, SANT'ANNA P H C. Difference-in-differences with multiple time periods[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2021, 225(2): 200-230. 本文引用 [1]

[27]	PERDAN S, AZAPAGIC A. Carbon trading: Current schemes and future developments[J]. Energy Policy, 2011, 39(10): 6040-6054. 本文引用 [1]

[28]	王喜平，王素静. 碳交易试点的电力碳减排政策效应研究[J]. 电力科学与工程，2021, 37(6): 1-8. WANG Xiping, WANG Sujing. Research on the policy effect of carbon trading pilot on electric carbon emission reduction[J]. Electric Power Science and Engineering, 2021, 37(6): 1-8. 本文引用 [1]

[29]	MCGAVOCK T. Here waits the bride? The effect of ethiopia's child marriage law[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2021, 149: 102580. 本文引用 [1]

[30]	李青原，肖泽华. 异质性环境规制工具与企业绿色创新激励——来自上市企业绿色专利的证据[J]. 经济研究，2020, 55(9):192-208. 本文引用 [1]

[31]	吴茵茵，齐杰，鲜琴，等. 中国碳市场的碳减排效应研究——基于市场机制与行政干预的协同作用视角[J]. 中国工业经济，2021(8): 114-132. 本文引用 [1]

[32]	LI M. Using the propensity score method to estimate causal effects: A review and practical guide[J]. Organizational Research Methods, 2013, 16(2): 188-226. 本文引用 [1]

[33]	WANG H, CHEN Z, WU X, et al. Can a carbon trading system promote the transformation of a low-carbon economy under the framework of the porter hypothesis？Empirical analysis based on the PSM-DID method[J]. Energy Policy, 2019, 129: 930-938. 本文引用 [1]

[34]	ZERROUKAT M, WOOD N, STANIFORTH A． The parabolic spline method (PSM) for conservative transport problems[J]. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 2006, 51(11): 1297-1318. 本文引用 [1]