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碳-能源-绿色金融市场间的风险溢出效应研究
Research on Risk Spillover Effects Among Carbon-Energy-Green Finance Markets
The study explores the risk spillover effects among carbon markets, energy markets, and green finance markets, with a particular focus on the impact of extreme events on these markets. The aim is to provide insights for mitigating risks in the carbon market and promoting its healthy development. Based on an in-depth analysis of the risk spillover mechanisms among carbon, energy, and green finance markets, this research employs time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR)-Diebold-Yilmaz(DY) and TVP-VAR-Baruník-Křehlík(BK) spillover index methods-and integrates them with a spillover network model. Utilizing historical data from 2018 to 2023 pertaining to China’s carbon market, energy market, and green finance market, this paper conducts an empirical investigation into the time-frequency risk spillover effects across these various markets. The results indicate that: (1) The spillover effects among the carbon-energy-green finance markets exhibit time variability and are susceptible to extreme sudden events. (2) Within different temporal domains and frequency cycles, both the green stock market and new energy market serve as primary sources of systemic risk transmission; conversely, while the carbon market acts as a recipient of risk in the short term, it transitions into a source of risk outflow over the long term. (3) The green stock market and new energy market constitute significant centers within the systemic spillover network.
碳市场 / 能源市场 / 绿色金融市场 / 风险溢出 / 极端事件
carbon market / energy market / green financial market / risk spillover / extreme events
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Based on generalized variance decomposition spectrum, the spillover index was constructed, as well as the spillover network; From time and frequency domain perspective, this paper systematically investigates the static and time-varying spillover between China's carbon market and the energy market and explores the interactive association between the carbon market and the external market. The results of research indicates that firstly, in the “carbon-energy” system. The risk of the short term spillover is larger than that of the long term spillover, and the electricity market and the new energy market are at the center of information of spillover network and risk. Secondly, the rank of risk spillover intensity between carbon and energy market from upper to lower is as follows: fossil energy industry, the secondary energy industry and the new energy industry. From the perspective of time domain, the carbon market is a net risk receiver; from the perspective of frequency domain, the carbon market is a net risk spillover party in the short term while it is a net risk receiver in the long term. Finally, it is detected that material policy changes, macroeconomic shocks and climate changes can considerably improve overall risk connectedness of the system.
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碳市场的建立是实现“双碳”目标的重要保障,分析碳市场与化石能源市场间的溢出效应有助于提升市场流动性、规避碳金融风险,从而更好地推动国家气候战略目标。本文运用主成分分析方法将我国8个碳试点价格集成,明确试点阶段我国碳市场的整体发展规律,并通过VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型,进一步探究了全国统一碳市场建立前后碳市场与化石能源市场之间溢出效应的变化情况。结果表明,试点阶段碳市场与各类化石能源市场之间均存在显著的单向均值溢出效应。然而,在全国碳排放权交易市场建立初期,仅有部分发电行业参与交易,这在一定程度上削弱了碳市场与化石能源市场之间的联动关系,造成了二者之间均值溢出效应的下降。此外,全国统一碳市场的建立吸引了更多的投资者,加剧了碳市场和化石能源市场间的风险传染,需要进一步完善监管政策体系,保障碳市场平稳健康运行。
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The green transformation of energy consumption structure is related to the green and low-carbon development of the economy and society. Green finance is an important means to promote the green transformation of energy consumption structure. Based on the panel data from 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2020, this paper uses the entropy method to measure the development of green finance and the transformation of energy consumption structure. It analyzes the evolution characteristics of green finance development and energy consumption structure transformation by the means of kernel density estimation and spatial analysis, and empirically evaluates the impact and spatial spillover effects of green finance development on the transformation of energy consumption structure using the methods of the bidirectional fixed effect model and spatial Durbin model. It's found that: 1) Both the development of green finance and the transformation of energy consumption structure generally show a growth trend, with regional disparities converging, it demonstrate significantly higher levels of both than the average in certain regions. 2) The development of green finance and the transformation of energy consumption structure have significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, both showing positive spatial autocorrelation. 3) The positive spatial correlation between the development of green finance and the transformation of energy consumption structure shows an increasing trend followed by a weakening trend. 4) The development of green finance can significantly promote the transformation of energy consumption structure and has spatial spillover effects.
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