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分布式能源  2018, Vol. 3 Issue (3): 22-27    DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.10-1427/tk.2018.03.004
  本期目录 | 过刊浏览 |
基于EEMD-BBO-ELM的短期风电功率预测方法
时彤, 杨朔
Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power Based on EEMD-Optimal-ELM Algorithm
SHI Tong,YANG Shuo
大唐东北电力试验研究院有限公司,吉林 长春 130012
Datang Northeast Electric Power Test & Research Institute Co., Ltd., Changchun 130012, Jilin Province, China
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摘要: 

对风电功率进行短期预测是降低风电不确定性对电力系统稳定运行影响最主要的手段之一。针对短期风电的功率预测,提出了一种基于集合经验模态分解算法(ensemble empirical mode decomposition,EEMD)、生物地理学优化算法(biogeography-based optimization,BBO)和极限学习机(extreme learning machine, ELM)算法的风电功率短期的预测方法(EEMD-BBO-ELM)。首先,利用EEMD算法对原始风电功率序列进行分解;然后,利用BBO算法优化后的ELM算法进行预测;最后,利用实测数据验证可知本文算法的预测性能优秀,收敛速度快,具有较高的工程利用价值。

关键词: 风电功率预测集合经验模态分解(EEMD)生物地理学优化算法(BBO)极限学习机(ELM)    
Abstract

The short-term prediction of wind power is one of the most important means to reduce the influence of wind power uncertainty on the stable operation of the power system. This paper proposes a short-term prediction of wind power based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) algorithm, the biogeography-based optimization (BBO) algorithm and the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm (EEMD-BBO-ELM). First, the EEMD algorithm is used to decompose the original wind power sequence, and then the ELM algorithm optimized by BBO is used to predict the power sequence. Finally, the experimental data verifies that the prediction performance of this algorithm is excellent, the convergence speed is fast, which has high engineering value.

Key Wordswind power predictionEEMDBBOELM
收稿日期: 2018-03-03
ZTFLH:  TK 81  
作者简介:

杨 朔(1992—),男,学士,研究方向为电力系统规划设计。

引用本文:

时彤, 杨朔. 基于EEMD-BBO-ELM的短期风电功率预测方法[J]. 分布式能源, 2018, 3(3): 22-27.
SHI Tong,YANG Shuo. Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power Based on EEMD-Optimal-ELM Algorithm[J]. Distributed Energy, 2018, 3(3): 22-27.

链接本文:

http://der.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16513/j.cnki.10-1427/tk.2018.03.004      或      http://der.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2018/V3/I3/22

图1  EEMD-BBO-ELM预测流程图
图2  风电功率原始时序曲线
图3  EEMD分解结果
表1  不同预测模型的预测误差(风电场1)
图4  实际曲线与5种预测模型的预测曲线(风电场1)
表2  不同模型的预测误差(风电场2)
图5  实际曲线与5种预测模型的预测曲线(风电场2)
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