Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Method for Power System Considering the Correlation Between Photovoltaic Output and Load

doi:10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.191056

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Distributed Energy ›› 2019, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (5) : 1-9. DOI: 10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.191056

Renewable Energy Absorption Technology

Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Method for Power System Considering the Correlation Between Photovoltaic Output and Load

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Abstract

Since the randomness and correlation of PV output and load have an important impact on the accurate evaluation of power system operating characteristics, this paper studies the probabilistic power flow of power system considering the randomness and correlation between PV output and load. Firstly, based on the distribution characteristics of PV output and load, a mathematical model of nonparametric probability distribution is proposed. Secondly, Kendall correlation coefficient and least square Euclidean distance are used as correlation measure and fitting index, which is constructed by Copula theory. Taking into account the joint probability distribution model of PV output and load correlation, a probabilistic power flow calculation method that can accurately consider the correlation between the two is proposed, and the influence of PV output and load correlation on the operating characteristics of the system is analyzed. Finally, a simulation is carried out with the measured data of a PV power plant of China and the IEEE 34 node power distribution system. The simulation results show that the proposed probability distribution model can more accurately reflect the randomness and volatility of PV output and load, and verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the probabilistic power flow method which takes the correlation of PV output and load into consideration.

Key words

photovoltaic output / nonparametric / Copula theory / joint probability distribution / probability flow

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Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Method for Power System Considering the Correlation Between Photovoltaic Output and Load[J]. Distributed Energy Resources. 2019, 4(5): 1-9 https://doi.org/10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.191056

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Funding

Project supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFB0904700)

Science and Technology Foundation of SGCC (Research and application of multi-spatial scale variation of photovoltaic output characteristics considering complex factors such as cloud and floating dust)