Correction Method of Numerical Weather Prediction Based on Sensitivity Factor Analysis

Zhihui CONG; Qian LIU; Yongqian LIU; Shuang HAN

doi:10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2008007

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Distributed Energy ›› 2020, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (5) : 8-15. DOI: 10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2008007

Basic Research

Correction Method of Numerical Weather Prediction Based on Sensitivity Factor Analysis

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Abstract

As a common method of numerical weather prediction (NWP) correction, model output statistics can effectively correct system errors and save computing resources and time. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of NWP, this paper analyzes the influence modes of different factors on NWP error, Starting from the factors that affect the accuracy of NWP, and obtains the factors that have the greatest impact on NWP wind speed error. Then based on the sensitive factors, a piecewise correction model is established to improve the accuracy of NWP. In order to prevent the research results from relying on a specific modeling method, four commonly used statistical methods are used to establish the model. The results of numerical examples show that the NWP wind speed error is the most sensitive to the wind direction, and the modified model based on the wind direction has the highest accuracy. Taking the linear regression method as an example, the NWP error based on wind direction is 3.6% and 5.3% lower than that based on wind speed and air pressure.

Key words

numerical weather prediction (NWP) correction / wind speed error / sensitivity analysis / wind direction

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Zhihui CONG , Qian LIU , Yongqian LIU , et al. Correction Method of Numerical Weather Prediction Based on Sensitivity Factor Analysis[J]. Distributed Energy Resources. 2020, 5(5): 8-15 https://doi.org/10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2008007

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