Intraday Prediction Model for PV Power Considering Samples of Different Weather Types

FU Xuejiao,LYU Kexin,WU Linlin,LIU Hui,ZHANG Yangfan,LI Yilin,YE Lin

Distributed Energy ›› 2024, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2) : 39-47.

PDF(16500 KB)
PDF(16500 KB)
Distributed Energy ›› 2024, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2) : 39-47. DOI: 10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2409205
Basic Research

Intraday Prediction Model for PV Power Considering Samples of Different Weather Types

Author information +
History +

Abstract

Solar energy has the advantages of being clean, safe, and renewable, and photovoltaic (PV) power generation can reduce resource consumption and contribute to sustainable development. However, PV power is easily affected by weather, and the prediction of PV power for different weather types is also a research difficulty. This study proceeds to apply synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) and machine learning for PV power prediction under different weather types. Firstly, the meteorological factors that have the greatest impact on PV power are selected by the Pearson's correlation coefficient method. Then the sunshine duration is calculated based on the meteorological factors with a greater degree of importance, and the weather is classified as sunny, cloudy or cloudy, and snow-covered days by setting a threshold for the number of hours of sunshine, and then the samples under various weather types are expanded by the SMOTE technique. Finally, the PV power prediction model is constructed by various machine learning algorithms for different weather scenarios and before and after data expansion. Through case validation, it can be seen that the algorithm proposed in this paper is able to classify different weather types, and provides a solution to the sample imbalance problem of PV power prediction under different weather types, which improves the prediction accuracy of PV power under different weather scenarios.

Key words

photovoltaic power generation / power prediction / machine learning / synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) / weather types

Cite this article

Download Citations
Xuejiao FU , Kexin LYU , Linlin WU , et al . Intraday Prediction Model for PV Power Considering Samples of Different Weather Types[J]. Distributed Energy Resources. 2024, 9(2): 39-47 https://doi.org/10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.2409205

References

[1]
YE Lin, LI Yilin, PEI Ming, et al. A novel integrated method for short-term wind power forecasting based on fluctuation clustering and history matching[J]. Applied Energy, 2022, 327: 120131.
[2]
尹昌洁,权楠,苏凯,等. 我国分布式能源发展现状及展望[J]. 分布式能源2022, 7(2): 1-7.
YIN Changjie, QUAN Nan, SU Kai, et al. Status and outlook of distributed energy development in china[J]. Distributed Energy, 2022, 7(2): 1-7.
[3]
董霞威,马长啸,黄海,等. 分布式光伏项目国企开发模式及风险研究[J]. 分布式能源2021, 6(6): 24-30.
DONG Xiawei, MA Changxiao, HUANG Hai, et al. Research on development mode and risks of distributed photovoltaic projects developed by state-owned enterprises[J]. Distributed Energy, 2021, 6(6): 24-30.
[4]
肖瑶,钮文泽,魏高升,等. 太阳能光伏/光热技术研究现状与发展趋势综述[J]. 发电技术2022, 43(3): 392-404.
XIAO Yao, NIU Wenze, WEI Gaosheng, et al. Review on research status and developing tendency of solar photovoltaic/thermal technology[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2022, 43(3): 392-404.
[5]
WANG Jianxiao, ZHONG Haiwang, LAI Xiaowen, et al. Exploring key weather factors from analytical modeling toward improved solar power forecasting[J]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2019, 10 (2): 1417-1427.
[6]
焦嘉凝,柳璐,张天宇,等. 台风灾害下多阶段协同的受端电网弹性提升策略[J]. 电力系统自动化2023, 47(12): 9-18.
JIAO Jianing, LIU Lu, ZHANG Tianyu, et al. Resilience enhancement strategy with multi-stage collaboration for receiving-end grid under typhoon disaster[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2023, 47(12): 9-18.
[7]
钟海旺,张广伦,程通,等. 美国得州2021年极寒天气停电事故分析及启示[J]. 电力系统自动化2022, 46(6): 1-9.
ZHONG Haiwang, ZHANG Guanglun, CHENG Tong, et al. Analysis and enlightenment of extremely cold weather power outage in texas, U. S. in 2021[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(6): 1-9.
[8]
HANDAYANI K, FILATOVA T, KROZER Y, et al. Seeking for a climate change mitigation and adaptation nexus: analysis of a long-term power system expansion[J]. Applied Energy, 2020, 262(C): 114485-114485.
[9]
王海燕,刘佳康,邓亚平. 基于预估-校正综合BP神经网络的短期光伏功率预测[J]. 智慧电力2023, 51(3): 46-52.
WANG Haiyan, LIU Jiakang, DENG Yaping. Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on predict-correct combination BP neural network[J]. Smart Power, 2023, 51(3): 46-52.
[10]
陶仁峰,李凤婷,李永东,等. 基于云层分布规律与太阳光跟踪的光伏电站MPPT策略[J]. 电力系统自动化2018, 42(5): 25-33.
TAO Renfeng, LI Fengting, LI Yongdong, et al. MPPT strategy of photovoltaic station based on cloud distribution pattern and sunlight tracking[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2018, 42(5): 25-33.
[11]
白捷予,董存,王铮,等. 考虑云层遮挡的光伏发电功率超短期预测技术[J]. 高电压技术2023, 49(1): 159-168.
BAI Jieyu, DONG Cun, WANG Zheng, et al. Ultra-short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation considering cloud cover[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2023, 49(1): 159-168.
[12]
赵波,廖坤,邓春宇,等. 基于卷积神经学习的光伏板积灰状态识别与分析[J]. 中国电机工程学报2019, 39(23): 6981-6989, 7111.
ZHAO Bo, LIAO Kun, DENG Chunyu, et al. Image convolutional neural learning based image recognition and analysis method for dust on photovoltaic panel[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2019, 39(23): 6981-6989, 7111.
[13]
孟安波,陈嘉铭,黎湛联,等. 基于相似日理论和CSO-WGPR的短期光伏发电功率预测[J]. 高电压技术2021, 47(4): 1176-1184.
MENG Anbo, CHEN Jiaming, LI Zhanlian, et al. Short-term photovoltaic power generation prediction based on similar day theory and CSO-WGPR[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2021, 47(4): 1176-1184.
[14]
叶林,李奕霖,裴铭,等. 寒潮天气小样本条件下的短期风电功率组合预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报2023, 43(2): 543-555.
YE Lin, LI Yilin, PEI Ming, et al. Combined approach for short-term wind power forecasting under cold weather with small sample[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(2): 543-555.
[15]
李振坤,王法顺,郭维一,等. 极端天气下智能配电网的弹性评估[J]. 电力系统自动化2020, 44(9): 60-68.
LI Zhenkun, WANG Fashun, GUO Weiyi, et al. Resilience evaluation of smart distribution network in extreme weather[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2020, 44(9): 60-68.
[16]
刘灏,商峻,毕天姝,等. 基于实测数据的电网频率信号特征分析与提取方法[J]. 电力系统自动化2023, 47(10): 135-144.
LIU Hao, SHANG Jun, BI Tianshu, et al. Feature analysis and extraction method of power grid frequency signal based on measured data[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2023, 47(10): 135-144.
[17]
NOUSDILIS A I, KRYONIDIS G C, KONTIS E O, et al. An exponential droop control strategy for distributed energy storage systems integrated with photovoltaics[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2021, 36(4): 3317-3328.
[18]
ZHANG Chenxu, FU Yong, GONG Lin. Short-term electricity price forecast using frequency analysis and price spikes oversampling[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2023, 38(5): 4739-4751.
[19]
LI Fengyun, ZHENG Haofeng, LI Xingmei, et al. Day-ahead city natural gas load forecasting based on decomposition-fusion technique and diversified ensemble learning model[J]. Applied Energy, 2021, 303: 117623.
[20]
LI Zhuo, YE Lin, ZHAO Yongning, et al. A spatiotemporal directed graph convolution network for ultra-short-term wind power prediction[J]. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 2023, 14(1): 39-54.
[21]
陈金富,朱乔木,石东源,等. 利用时空相关性的多位置多步风速预测模型[J]. 中国电机工程学报2019, 39(7): 2093-2106.
CHEN Jinfu, ZHU Qiaomu, SHI Dongyuan, et al. A multi-step wind speed prediction model for multiple sites leveraging spatio-temporal correlation[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2019, 39(7): 2093-2106.
[22]
SHI Yu, SONG Xianzhi, SONG Guofeng. Productivity prediction of a multilateral-well geothermal system based on a long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron combinational neural network[J]. Applied Energy, 2021, 282: 116046.

Funding

the Science and Technology Program of North China Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd.(KJZ2022060)
PDF(16500 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

/