Algorithm of Societal Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Society-Electricity-Economy Production Function

Yishuang HU; Yi DING

doi:10.16513/j.cnki.10-1427/tk.2018.05.003

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Distributed Energy ›› 2018, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (5) : 16-21. DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.10-1427/tk.2018.05.003

Basic Research

Algorithm of Societal Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Society-Electricity-Economy Production Function

Yishuang HU ,
Yi DING

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Abstract

In the process of social and economic development, there is a strong correlation between industrial electricity consumption and economy. However, the traditional algorithm does not consider this correlation, and is incapable of quantifying the relationship between societal electricity consumption and industrial output value. Therefore, the traditional electricity prediction algorithm can not characterize its economic characteristics, and is not suitable for efficient prediction of industrial electricity in the whole society. Based on the power-economic production function, this paper proposes a electricity consumption prediction algorithm for the whole society. Firstly, we divides the societal electricity into four level: three major industries and residential electricity. Then, we quantify the correlation between the output value of the three industries and the power supply through the power-economic production function. With the help of development tendency of three major industries economy and residential electricity capacity obtained by expert analysis, and the future electric quantity of the three industries forecasted by the production function method, the future societal electricity consumption can be calculated, based on the power-economic production function method and future economic data of the three industries. Finally, comprehensively considering the trend of industrial structure adjustment in three industries and the characteristics of power-economic production function, we proposes some opinions on the industrial economy and power development planning. Taking Zhejiang province as an example, we forecast its societal electricity consumption during 2018-2020 and propose 9 suggestions on industrial economy and power structure adjustment based on its future economic and power development trend. In the case, it is found that changes in output value will correspondingly change the industrial electricity consumption and electricity consumption growth. The proportion of the corresponding industries can be increased or reduced by increasing the growth rate of electricity consumption, so as to effectively adjust the industrial structure. The whole society electricity forecasting algorithm based on power-economic production function analyses the correlation between electricity and economy from a macro perspective, which can predict the whole social electricity consumption more comprehensively.

Key words

electric consumption forecasting / economic relevance / production function / adjustment of industrial structure

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Yishuang HU , Yi DING. Algorithm of Societal Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Society-Electricity-Economy Production Function[J]. Distributed Energy Resources. 2018, 3(5): 16-21 https://doi.org/10.16513/j.cnki.10-1427/tk.2018.05.003

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