After the establishment of the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) carbon pricing attracted many researchers. This paper aims to develop a prediction model that anticipates future carbon prices given a real-world data set. We treat the carbon pricing issue as part of big data analytics to achieve this goal. We apply three fundamental methodologies to characterize the carbon price. First method is the artificial neural network, which mimics the principle of human brain to process relevant data. As a second approach, we apply the decision tree algorithm. This algorithm is structured through making multiple binary decisions, and it is mostly used for classification. We employ two different decision tree algorithms, namely traditional and conditional, to determine the type of decision tree that gives better results in terms of prediction. Finally, we exploit the random forest, which is a more complex algorithm compared to the decision tree. Similar to the decision tree, we test both traditional and conditional random forest algorithms to analyze their performances. We use Brent crude futures, coal, electricity and natural gas prices, and DAX and S&P Clean Energy Index as explanatory variables. We analyze the variables' effects on carbon price forecasting. According to our results, S&P Clean Energy Index is the most influential variable in explaining the changes in carbon price, followed by DAX Index and coal price. Moreover, we conclude that the traditional random forest is the best algorithm based on all indicators. We provide the details of these methods and their comparisons.

2018年中美贸易战的爆发，对中美碳市场和能源市场都造成了强烈的冲击。为探究中美贸易战对中国碳市场的影响，本文利用断点回归模型发现碳市场价格在中美贸易战爆发前后出现了断层现象。本文运用VAR和方差分解来找出贸易战前后对碳市场影响最大的传统能源市场。通过DCC-GARCH模型，本文研究了中国碳市场与能源市场在中美贸易战前后的溢出关系变化，并发现不同市场间的动态相关性发生了变化。本文以中美贸易战为背景，探究贸易战对中国碳市场和传统能源市场的冲击和影响，无论是从碳风险管理还是从缓解气候恶化角度都具有重要的现实意义。 

本文构建了新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,通过在货币政策规则中引入已预期的政策冲击来刻画前瞻性指引,然后利用美国数据分两步对模型参数进行贝叶斯估计,通过方差分解和脉冲响应分析,考察前瞻性指引的效果。结果表明,2008年第四季度至2018年第一季度,前瞻性指引能够解释产出、消费、投资、劳动和利率15%~45%的波动。当经济处于正常时期,前瞻性指引能够通过引导公众通胀预期,改变其当期的消费和投资决策,进而对当期的经济产出产生影响。同时,价格粘性程度和泰勒规则中通胀缺口与产出缺口的反应系数会影响前瞻性指引的效果。当经济处于衰退时期,零利率下限约束导致常规货币政策失效,前瞻性指引既可以降低经济衰退的程度,也可以推动经济复苏。